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2011年9月13日火曜日

Japan sees G7 'understanding' on forex action

MARSEILLE, France (Reuters) – The yen took a back seat at the Group of Seven finance ministers' meeting, which grappled with Europe's debt crisis and global economic slowdown, but Japan said it met little resistance to further intervention.

The G7 economic powers gave a muted reaction to Japan's call to endorse its right to unilateral action against speculators pushing up its currency, but Japanese officials and some analysts said the subdued response suggests the G7 could let Japan intervene in the market again if needed.

"We intervened in August and I told the (G7) that we will continue to watch the situation closely and flexibly, and take decisive steps against speculative moves," Finance Minister Jun Azumi told a news conference late on Friday after the G7 talks.

"No countries voiced opinions against our explanation. I believe we gained understanding toward our view on currencies."

A senior finance ministry official said the G7 had not ruled out the chance of solo intervention by Japan.

In the run-up to the meeting, Japanese officials vowed to seek G7 understanding on Tokyo's intentions to counter yen rises that threaten to derail a recovery from the March earthquake which tipped the world's No. 3 economy into recession.

"Japan could not ask for more as it just avoided blunt criticism from other countries against its past intervention," said Masafumi Yamamoto, Japan chief forex strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

On Saturday, Azumi told reporters that U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had not voiced opposition in an early morning bilateral meeting.

"He was smiling but did not refute. He appears to understand the situation," Azumi said.

LITTLE CHANCE OF CONCERTED INTERVENTION

Japan has conducted three currency interventions over the past year -- one rare co-ordinated action with the G7 shortly after the March 11 disaster and two solo moves.

Yamamoto said further intervention to curb excess volatility

may not meet international opposition as long as it was not done frequently or aimed at guiding currency rates toward specific levels as Switzerland did this week by setting an exchange cap on its soaring currency.

Japan's economy is now recovering from recession, while Europe and the United States face a slowdown, so Tokyo has been having a hard time convincing its G7 counterparts of the need for intervention.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said early last month that currency interventions "have to be made on the basis of a multilateral consensus," signaling displeasure at Japan's solo action on August 4.

In Marseille, Japanese officials including Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa blamed the yen's rise on global economic woes that have been amplified by Europe's debt crisis -- the central topic of debate at the G7 talks.

"Such an argument may have discouraged Europe from being critical of Japan's intervention. As a result, Japan may have gained a free hand in intervening in the currency market," said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities.

Japan faces higher hurdles persuading the G7 of the need for a joint intervention, which is seen as more effective in curbing excess currency moves.

On Friday, the G7 issued a statement that said exchange rates should be determined by markets and pledged: "We will consult closely in regard to actions in exchange markets and would cooperate as appropriate."

"The G7 is not in a situation where it needs to do something about currencies as it focuses on how to balance public finances while facing slowing economy," said Barclay's Yamamoto.

"The foreign exchange market is reflecting debt problems in the West but it is not causing problems. So G7 must be feeling there's no use dealing with currencies to resolve the market situation."

(Editing by Catherine Bremer/Mike Peacock)


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2011年9月11日日曜日

G-7 Ends Without Objection to Yen Action - Bloomberg

Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi ended his first Group of Seven meeting without his counterparts objecting to his pledge to take “bold actions” to stem yen gains, paving the way for a fresh intervention if he deems it necessary.

“We will continue to closely monitor developments and we will take bold actions, especially against speculative trading,” Azumi said after G-7 finance chiefs met in Marseille, France. “No one was opposed to my explanation. I think I gained an understanding of our stance on foreign-exchange rates.”

Concern the currency gain is hurting economic recovery by crimping exports may be mounting after a report showed the world’s third-largest economy contracted more than the government initially estimated in the second quarter. Azumi attended the G-7 talks about a week after becoming Japan’s eighth finance minister since the start of 2008.

“We expect Japan’s authorities will act again unilaterally” if the yen tests its post-war high, said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, UBS AG’s global head of currency strategy in Singapore. “Investors should instead keep favoring the dollar now when they seek safe-haven currencies.”

Azumi asked U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner to understand the challenges caused by the strength of the yen when they met yesterday, a Japanese finance ministry official said on the condition of anonymity, citing government policy.

The G-7 policy makers said in a statement that they will “consult closely in regard to actions in exchange markets and will cooperate as appropriate.” While they said they prefer markets to set currencies, they reiterated their long-held view that volatility and disorderly movements threaten stability.

“As this falls short of any commitment to undertake coordinated action in currency markets, investors are likely to react with disappointment when trading resumes on Monday,” UBS’s Mohi-uddin said.

The yen touched a 10-year high against euro last week as investors sought a haven from Europe’s sovereign debt crisis after German officials said they are considering plans to shore up their banks if Greece defaults.

“The root cause of the strong yen is global investors’ preference for safe assets,” Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters during the G-7 meeting. “I told them Japan expects them to firmly address the fiscal issues,” he said, referring to his G-7 counterparts.

The yen has retreated after rising to a post-war high of 75.95 against the dollar, closing last week at 77.61 in New York. The exchange rate is nevertheless ’’considerably high,’’ Economy Policy Minister Motohisa Furukawa said last week. The nation’s largest manufacturers including Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. based their business plans for this fiscal year at an average of 82.59 per dollar, according to the central bank’s quarterly survey in July.

Gross domestic product shrank at an annualized 2.1 percent rate in the three months ended June 30, more than the 1.3 percent contraction reported last month, the Cabinet Office said yesterday.

Rintaro Tamaki, Japan’s former top currency official who orchestrated interventions last September and March, said the language in the G-7 statement indicates countries want Japan to build a consensus before intervening, indicating the nation may face disagreement over yen sales in the future.

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said before the G-7 meeting he was concerned about moves by the Japanese and Swiss to stem gains in their currencies after the Swiss central bank said last week it will keep the euro above 1.20 francs and will defend that line with “utmost determination.”

While the lack of objection to Japan’s currency stance doesn’t signal approval for unilateral intervention, the country’s authorities aren’t ruling out selling the yen to curb excessive moves, another finance ministry official said, also on condition of anonymity.

Japan intervened on Aug. 4 and sold 4.51 trillion yen ($58 billion) of its currency last month, the biggest monthly sales since 2004. The G-7 economies jointly intervened in March for the first time in more than a decade after a soaring yen threatened Japan’s recovery from an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster.

Former Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who is now the premier, conducted three rounds of interventions in the past 12 months. Azumi has said he will inherit Noda’s stance.

To contact the reporter on this story: Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net


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Japan sees G7 "understanding" on forex action (Reuters)

MARSEILLE, France (Reuters) – The yen took a back seat at the Group of Seven finance ministers' meeting, which grappled with Europe's debt crisis and global economic slowdown, but Japan said it met little resistance to further intervention.

The G7 economic powers gave a muted reaction to Japan's call to endorse its right to unilateral action against speculators pushing up its currency, but Japanese officials and some analysts said the subdued response suggests the G7 could let Japan intervene in the market again if needed.

"We intervened in August and I told the (G7) that we will continue to watch the situation closely and flexibly, and take decisive steps against speculative moves," Finance Minister Jun Azumi told a news conference late on Friday after the G7 talks.

"No countries voiced opinions against our explanation. I believe we gained understanding toward our view on currencies."

A senior finance ministry official said the G7 had not ruled out the chance of solo intervention by Japan.

In the run-up to the meeting, Japanese officials vowed to seek G7 understanding on Tokyo's intentions to counter yen rises that threaten to derail a recovery from the March earthquake which tipped the world's No. 3 economy into recession.

"Japan could not ask for more as it just avoided blunt criticism from other countries against its past intervention," said Masafumi Yamamoto, Japan chief forex strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

On Saturday, Azumi told reporters that U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had not voiced opposition in an early morning bilateral meeting.

"He was smiling but did not refute. He appears to understand the situation," Azumi said.

LITTLE CHANCE OF CONCERTED INTERVENTION

Japan has conducted three currency interventions over the past year -- one rare co-ordinated action with the G7 shortly after the March 11 disaster and two solo moves.

Yamamoto said further intervention to curb excess volatility

may not meet international opposition as long as it was not done frequently or aimed at guiding currency rates toward specific levels as Switzerland did this week by setting an exchange cap on its soaring currency.

Japan's economy is now recovering from recession, while Europe and the United States face a slowdown, so Tokyo has been having a hard time convincing its G7 counterparts of the need for intervention.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said early last month that currency interventions "have to be made on the basis of a multilateral consensus," signaling displeasure at Japan's solo action on August 4.

In Marseille, Japanese officials including Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa blamed the yen's rise on global economic woes that have been amplified by Europe's debt crisis -- the central topic of debate at the G7 talks.

"Such an argument may have discouraged Europe from being critical of Japan's intervention. As a result, Japan may have gained a free hand in intervening in the currency market," said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities.

Japan faces higher hurdles persuading the G7 of the need for a joint intervention, which is seen as more effective in curbing excess currency moves.

On Friday, the G7 issued a statement that said exchange rates should be determined by markets and pledged: "We will consult closely in regard to actions in exchange markets and would cooperate as appropriate."

"The G7 is not in a situation where it needs to do something about currencies as it focuses on how to balance public finances while facing slowing economy," said Barclay's Yamamoto.

"The foreign exchange market is reflecting debt problems in the West but it is not causing problems. So G7 must be feeling there's no use dealing with currencies to resolve the market situation."

(Editing by Catherine Bremer/Mike Peacock)


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2011年9月8日木曜日

Japan Unlikely to Follow Swiss Action on Franc: Analysts - CNBC.com

The Swiss National Bank's bold move to restrain the strength of its currency against the euro has sparked speculation in the markets that the move may prompt similar action by Japan’s monetary authorities.

Japanese Yen

But strategists CNBC spoke to say further intervention by the Bank of Japan to weaken the yen is unlikely, even if the Swiss maneuver prompts more safe-haven inflows into the Japanese currency.

Jesper Koll, Head of Japanese Equity Research at JPMorgan Securities Japan, says that with the Japanese economy on the rebound, there simply isn't enough urgency among policy makers despite the constant jaw-boning by officials.

"The real point is: when do corporate profits in Japan get squeezed to such an extent that...you have a national emergency?” Koll noted.

“If you look at corporate profit performance, if you look at the exporters, if you look at the machinery companies, if you look at the car companies, you actually do see that they're doing better than expected. So, dollar-yen is in the headline, but it's not really forcing the economic crunch here in Japan.”

On Tuesday, the Swiss National Bank said it would cap the Swiss franc's gains against the euro [EURCHF=R  Loading...      ()   ] at 1.20, sending the Swissie plummeting 10 percent against the single currency.

According to Kathy Lien, Director of Currency Research at Global Forex Trading, a similar dollar-yen arrangement does not make sense for Japan, especially from a trade perspective.

"Switzerland can establish a euro-Swiss peg because 70 percent of all their trade is done with the European Union. It does not make sense for the Japanese to establish a dollar-yen peg because less than 20 percent of their trade is done with the U.S.," Lien said. " So having a dollar-yen peg would not achieve the same results as having a euro-Swiss peg for the SNB."

The Bank of Japan has conducted two rounds of currency interventions so far this year, the first time in March and subsequently in August. Both rounds failed to keep the yen down for long. On Wednesday, dollar-yen [JPY=  Loading...      ()   ] continued to hover around the 77-handle, with the Japanese currency getting a slight boost after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged.

Experts say Japanese bonds continue to be seen as a safe haven asset among domestic investors, making it tougher on policy makers.

"The BOJ will have a little bit more difficulties because the size and liquidity of the Japanese government bonds market is actually a lot bigger than the Swiss National Bank's," said Kelvin Tay, Chief Investment Strategist, Singapore at UBS Wealth Management.

Koll says forex concerns are a less pressing problem for Japanese authorities, compared to addressing reconstruction issues following the earthquake and tsunami disasters in March.

"(It is) much more important for Japan, for the new finance minister....to actually present a package. Here is what Japan is doing to fund reconstruction, to get reconstruction going, and to work on a constructive and rational energy policy going forward," he said.


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2011年8月21日日曜日

Dollar tests ¥75.95; Tokyo mulls action - The Japan Times

The government and the Bank of Japan on Saturday began considering intervening in the market for the second time this month after the dollar briefly lost ground against the yen in New York on Friday, marking a postwar record low of ¥75.95.

The previous record was ¥76.25 set five months ago.

But market watchers are skeptical that a fresh but unilateral intervention would have a big impact on the market since the rising yen is stemming from concern over the U.S. and European economies. And coordinated intervention with U.S. and European authorities is not considered feasible.

Japan intervened in the market Aug. 4 by selling the yen and conducted additional monetary easing steps amid concern the strong yen will deal a blow to exporters struggling to recover from the March 11 quake and tsunami.

On Friday in New York, the dollar later recouped losses. At 5 p.m., it fetched ¥76.49-59, compared with ¥76.47-49 at 5 p.m. Friday in Tokyo.

Earlier remarks by Takehiko Nakao, vice finance minister for international affairs, were taken to mean Japanese authorities were hesitant to step into the market. This appeared to be behind the dollar's temporary plunge.

Nakao suggested in an interview Friday with The Wall Street Journal that while the government would take appropriate actions when necessary, it has no plans for frequent intervention.

The dollar skidded after his remarks were quoted by Reuters news agency, which said the interview encouraged yen buying.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has said Japan will take "measures in a resolute manner when necessary," hinting the possibility of a fresh intervention. But with Noda rumored to be the top candidate to run in the Democratic Party of Japan presidential race, some bureaucrats are skeptical if addressing the rising yen is Noda's main concern.

The credibility of the dollar has been challenged since the Aug. 5 historic downgrading of the AAA U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor's.

The Group of Seven industrial economies subsequently issued a joint statement calling for a stable market, but its impact was limited as it contained no specific steps such as possible concerted market intervention.

The U.S. currency has also come under pressures since the U.S. central bank announced Aug. 9 it would maintain its effectively zero interest rate policy over an extended period. Some data released recently also pointed to a deteriorating U.S. economy.

The fiscal woes of the eurozone, triggered by the Greek debt fiasco, that have been generating concern about Europe's financial systems and economies have also prompted a fund shift to the yen, market players said.

Recent gyrations of global stock markets are also seen as encouraging buying of the yen, regarded as a relatively safe currency.

"Amid speculation that the Federal Reserve Board may convene an urgent meeting shortly, investors, factoring in the possibility of another monetary easing step, sold the dollar," a dealer said.


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Dollar tests ¥75.95; Tokyo mulls action

The government and the Bank of Japan on Saturday began considering intervening in the market for the second time this month after the dollar briefly lost ground against the yen in New York on Friday, marking a postwar record low of ¥75.95.

The previous record was ¥76.25 set five months ago.

But market watchers are skeptical that a fresh but unilateral intervention would have a big impact on the market since the rising yen is stemming from concern over the U.S. and European economies. And coordinated intervention with U.S. and European authorities is not considered feasible.

Japan intervened in the market Aug. 4 by selling the yen and conducted additional monetary easing steps amid concern the strong yen will deal a blow to exporters struggling to recover from the March 11 quake and tsunami.

On Friday in New York, the dollar later recouped losses. At 5 p.m., it fetched ¥76.49-59, compared with ¥76.47-49 at 5 p.m. Friday in Tokyo.

Earlier remarks by Takehiko Nakao, vice finance minister for international affairs, were taken to mean Japanese authorities were hesitant to step into the market. This appeared to be behind the dollar's temporary plunge.

Nakao suggested in an interview Friday with The Wall Street Journal that while the government would take appropriate actions when necessary, it has no plans for frequent intervention.

The dollar skidded after his remarks were quoted by Reuters news agency, which said the interview encouraged yen buying.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has said Japan will take "measures in a resolute manner when necessary," hinting the possibility of a fresh intervention. But with Noda rumored to be the top candidate to run in the Democratic Party of Japan presidential race, some bureaucrats are skeptical if addressing the rising yen is Noda's main concern.

The credibility of the dollar has been challenged since the Aug. 5 historic downgrading of the AAA U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor's.

The Group of Seven industrial economies subsequently issued a joint statement calling for a stable market, but its impact was limited as it contained no specific steps such as possible concerted market intervention.

The U.S. currency has also come under pressures since the U.S. central bank announced Aug. 9 it would maintain its effectively zero interest rate policy over an extended period. Some data released recently also pointed to a deteriorating U.S. economy.

The fiscal woes of the eurozone, triggered by the Greek debt fiasco, that have been generating concern about Europe's financial systems and economies have also prompted a fund shift to the yen, market players said.

Recent gyrations of global stock markets are also seen as encouraging buying of the yen, regarded as a relatively safe currency.

"Amid speculation that the Federal Reserve Board may convene an urgent meeting shortly, investors, factoring in the possibility of another monetary easing step, sold the dollar," a dealer said.


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2011年8月16日火曜日

Analysis: Japan to rely more on timing than size in FX action (Reuters)

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan may lack the implicit approval of G7 nations to spend big in any future efforts to stem sharp yen rises and will have to rely on limited opportunistic strikes to prevent a build-up of aggressive bets on its currency.

That means that despite all the jawboning, Tokyo's record 4.6 trillion yen ($60 billion) intervention last week is unlikely to mark a start of a long campaign similar to the 35-trillion yen selling spree in 2003.

"Japanese policymakers say that Tokyo has gained some consent from the G7 on intervention. But judging from the statement, I doubt that's true," said Yasuhide Yajima, senior economist at NLI Research Institute in Tokyo.

"Having said that, I think Tokyo will probably intervene again. Not acting and allowing the yen to renew a record high is not an option for the government."

While Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has tried to keep markets on edge by making references to his discussions with G7 partners, it is doubtful there is much sympathy for Tokyo's battle with what is seen as a global currency realignment.

Back in 2003, Japan was the only major economy suffering from deflation and the aftermath of a severe economic slump, making it easier to gain Group of Seven understanding.

At the time, Washington recognized it was in the U.S. interest for Japan's economy to recover enough to pull out of a banking crisis that, if mishandled, could rock global markets.

And in March this year, when the group acted together to weaken the yen after it hit record highs, it was a show of solidarity with a Japan that had just been hit by a massive earthquake, a deadly tsunami and nuclear meltdowns.

DOLLAR WEAKNESS

Analysts also point out that five months ago, the yen soared mainly on speculation about repatriation of funds to the disaster-stricken nation. This time, it is a broad dollar weakness fueled by concerns about the U.S. economy that is primarily driving the Japanese currency.

Given that large scale interventions may not sit well with international partners while inaction would draw ire from exporters at home, Tokyo may aim for a "shock" effect by carefully choosing the moment to step in.

Noda has given markets a glimpse of government thinking, noting how events overseas played a role in decisions on when to act, and suggesting that Tokyo may not step in if there was a risk that a market-moving event could weaken the impact.

He has said the government waited until Washington sealed a deal on the U.S. debt ceiling before intervening on August 4. He also signaled that Tokyo kept a close eye on market reaction to the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Tuesday in determining whether any action was needed.

It looks certain that the Bank of Japan will try to maximize the effect of any intervention by refraining from draining the extra yen from the market. The central bank is also ready to supply huge amounts of funds to the market on any signs of stress, sources have told Reuters, and the BOJ may even ponder easing monetary policy further if the economy's recovery is threatened.

The finance ministry, which has jurisdiction over currency policy, can issue about 45 trillion yen in financing bills to secure yen for intervention. That means that even after a series of currency actions taken since last year, it is still left with about 40 trillion yen to spend, plenty to step into the market again.

Tokyo has interpreted a G7 call for coordinated action to ensure market stability in its statement this week as signaling the group's readiness to jointly intervene if currency moves become too volatile.

NO APPETITE FOR JOINT ACTION?

But another customary line in the statement, saying exchange rates should be determined by markets, was taken by markets as a sign that there was no appetite for joint action.

Some even suspect that the group was not happy with Japan's solo act, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said that currency interventions "have to be made on the basis of a multilateral consensus."

With joint or big-scale solo action seemingly off the table, markets may get ready for occasional skirmishes, not necessarily at times when the yen is rising sharply.

Noda's latest statement -- that he was thinking about ways of softening the impact of the yen's strength -- also suggested that the government had modest ambitions. It is aiming to prevent yen-buying from turning into a risk-free bet, rather than hoping to weaken the currency in a lasting manner.

It may also seek help from the BOJ, which could ease policy again to limit the strong yen's negative impact on business sentiment.

In fact, the government may want to rely more on the central bank in its efforts to tame the high-flying currency.

Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said this week Japan should give more thought to the range of quantitative easing steps it uses, while Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he hoped the BOJ will continue to support the economy with easy monetary policy.

($1 = 76.780 Japanese Yen)

(Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Richard Borsuk)


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