Former Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara, who until quite recently had shied away from running in the upcoming Democratic Party of Japan presidential election, declared his candidacy due to his concern over the intraparty group led by former DPJ head Ichiro Ozawa--his archrival--from dominating the party, sources have said.
Maehara's change of heart was due primarily to worries that Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who earlier announced his intention to run in the party election, would have little chance of winning the race. Both men belong to the DPJ's mainstream group opposing Ozawa, who heads the largest intraparty group of about 120 of the party's 398 lawmakers, according to the sources.
Ozawa's party membership has been suspended by the DPJ leadership since February after his indictment in January on charges of political funds irregularities.
As Ozawa still controls his grip on his group members, however, the outcome of the presidential contest could be swayed in favor of an Ozawa-backed candidate on the back of his bloc's numerical strength, the sources quoted Maehara as saying.
Maehara's entry into the election is sure to turn the tide of the race to pick a successor to Naoto Kan, according to analysts.
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Disenchanted with Noda
"I've no intention at all of trying to save my own neck," said Maehara before about 20 senior legislators from his group late Monday night at a Tokyo hotel.
"There is something more important than my own political career," Maehara added, seeking their understanding of his candidacy for the presidential race. The meeting to discuss the election lasted more than two hours.
On Sunday and early Monday, Maehara spoke with his family and members of his support organization in his Kyoto constituency about whether he should run in the DPJ election.
A few days earlier Maehara began steering himself in the direction of seeking the top party post, saying: "I am now aware there is a greater good. More important than what I previously thought was important."
A heavyweight of the Maehara group, former Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku, and other allies had not wanted Maehara to run in this presidential election.
That was because they believed Maehara--having stepped down as foreign minister only five months before for accepting political donations from a foreign national--should place priority on recovering from that scandal. The legislators believed he should wait for a longer period to serve as prime minister, by running in the DPJ's once-every-two-year regular presidential election, slated for September next year.
Maehara himself shared that view apparently for the sake of his political future.
An intention not to run in the election was made public on Aug. 12.
Aides to Maehara cited him as saying, "There's a huge difference between the task of prime minister and that of a cabinet member, and I have no desire or resolve [to be prime minister under the nation's current political situation]."
A key factor behind Maehara's shift to opt for the candidacy only 10 days later was a meeting Wednesday with Noda, who was seen as the front-runner in the contest, according to the sources.
Maehara asked Noda about his views on such key topics as possible tax increases for funding recovery from the March 11 disaster and the advisability of participating in negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, they said.
At the end of the talk, Maehara asked Noda, "What preparations have you made for fighting our party's election?"
Noda's response to the question, however, was weak. "I've yet to decide on details," sources quoted him as saying.
The remark was a surprise to Maehara, leading him to be hesitant to support Noda, as Maehara believed Noda would end up losing the election, they said.
Ozawa, for his part, is said to be sitting on the fence with a view to having the force of his 120-member group vote for the right horse in the race for the top party post.
Noda's possible contenders in the contest, including Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Michihiko Kano; Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda; former Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Minister Sumio Mabuchi; and former Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa, have all been courting former DPJ head Ozawa for his backing in the race.
Should Ozawa have his group not support Noda, his chances of winning the election would certainly be jeopardized, analysts said.
Maehara has viewed Noda as lacking any effective strategy to assure his victory in the election in the face of such moves of his probable opponents, the sources said.
Support then surged among members of the Maehara group to prod him to enter the presidential race.
In opinion surveys by The Yomiuri Shimbun and other media, Maehara has been by far the most popular contender of the DPJ legislators likely to run.
The Maehara group is poised to secure his victory in the contest mainly by garnering support from younger DPJ lawmakers, whose electoral bases are largely weak, by stressing that Maehara, if elected to the DPJ presidency, will serve as a key vote-gathering "magnet" in the next House of Representatives election to be held in or before 2013.
A close Maehara aide quoted him as saying if an Ozawa-backed candidate wins the DPJ election and the post of the party's secretary general is assumed by someone loyal to Ozawa, Maehara and his group members would be at a serious disadvantage. If this were to happen, the rights of fielding DPJ candidates in Diet elections as well as the party's fund management would be put under control of the Ozawa group, Maehara was cited as saying.
Sengoku, who was wary of letting Maehara fight the party election, finally changed his views after meeting President Nobuaki Koga of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo), the nation's largest labor organization, on Monday. He reportedly told Koga that Noda, little known by younger DPJ lawmakers, stood little chance of winning the presidential race, committing to support Maehara.
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