THE emergence of the young and popular former foreign minister Seiji Maehara in Japan's leadership race risks splitting the reformist vote and handing kingmaker power to a disgraced party elder.
It appeared yesterday that Mr Maehara was getting the upper hand over Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, both of whom draw their support from the same group.
Mr Maehara, a suave career politician from Kyoto, is rated as a firm public favourite to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Naoto Kan when a vote of the 398 ruling party MPs takes place on Monday.
Mr Maehara's camp was trying to position its man as reluctantly deciding to stand after realising how unprepared Mr Noda was for the challenge.
If successful, the 49-year-old would become Japan's youngest post-war prime minister.
His candidacy appeals to MPs at risk of losing their seats, who hope he can overturn the sagging fortunes of the Democratic Party of Japan, which surged euphorically into office in 2009 but has become mired in internal and inter-party feuding.
However, with Mr Noda and Mr Maehara splitting the vote among the reformists in the ruling DPJ, it risks putting significant power in the hands of party veteran Ichiro Ozawa.
Mr Ozawa, suspended from the party as he contests fraud charges, still commands the biggest bloc of votes with a rumoured 120-odd MPs at his disposal. If things keep running Mr Maehara's way, the pressure will mount on Mr Noda to withdraw to avoid enhancing Mr Ozawa's power.
Meanwhile, the opposition has declared it will resume probing the donations issue that saw Mr Maehara forced to step down from his ministry earlier in the year.
It emerged that he accepted a $3000 donation from a local Korean-Japanese restaurant owner in contravention of Japanese law.
That the woman was a family friend who had known him since he was a schoolboy was not enough to save his skin.
Mr Maehara is part of the reformist faction of the DPJ and is a free trader, a China hawk and a strong supporter of the US defence alliance.
Sophia University associate professor of political science Koichi Nakano said Mr Maehara's fate might rest on whether he could secure at least tacit support from Mr Ozawa.
Several other candidates seen as closer to Mr Ozawa - such as Industry Minister Banri Kaieda - are running in the leadership race. Mr Kaieda is more pro-nuclear than Mr Maehara, who has loosely committed to a long-term phase-out of atomic energy.
However, Mr Maehara is in step with the Ozawa camp on using debt rather than immediate tax increases to fund post-quake reconstruction to avoid damaging economic growth.
Mr Nakano said he was "ambivalent" as to whether Mr Maehara could be the powerful leader Japan needed to cut through the political morass that has produced five leaders in six years. He said Mr Maehara needed to seize the leadership decisively in the ballot.
"If he gets a big boost in public support then he will be in a much stronger position and that might put things into a more virtuous political cycle," he said.
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