Nissan Motor Co.'s Oppama factory in Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, is seen on July 2. (Mainichi)Japanese companies including Toyota Motor Corp. could have no option but to shift production overseas if the yen, which recently hit a post-war record high against the U.S. dollar, remains strong for a long time.
"The strong yen will affect a wide range of businesses. I'm worried that Japan's entire industrial sector could experience a downturn," a top executive at a major electronics company told the Mainichi on Aug. 19. An official of a heavy-equipment manufacturing firm said, "Our international competitiveness will steadily decline."
According to a survey of 119 major Japanese companies conducted by the Mainichi from mid-July to early August, the average exchange rate the companies assumed against the dollar for the current business year (ending at the end of March 2012) was the 82 yen level. Currently, the yen is 6 yen higher than that against the dollar.
As for the auto industry, for every one-yen increase against the dollar Toyota's operating profits are projected to drop by 30 billion yen and Nissan Motor Co.'s by 20 billion yen. Toyota fell into the red in the April-June quarter, and calculates that the strong yen cut profits then by 50 billion yen. Toyota is trying to keep its production lines in Japan, but a senior company official said, "We have no option but to have more parts produced abroad."
Mitsubishi Electric Corp. set its assumed exchange rate at 85 yen to the dollar for the business year ending March 2012. If the rate against the dollar is 1 yen stronger than that, profits will drop by 4 billion yen.
"We have to take conventional measures such as cost-cutting and increasing imports of raw materials, but if the yen continues to be strong for a long time, there are limits to what one company can do to deal with it," said a Mitsubishi Electric official.
Takashi Miyoshi, Executive Vice President of Hitachi Ltd., said, "We have to do more business overseas. Otherwise, we will lose cost competitiveness."
The strong yen has merits: people can travel abroad from Japan and companies in Japan can import raw materials from abroad at lower prices. But most economists believe that the adverse effects of the strong yen on the economy caused by poor business performances will outstrip the merits of the strong yen.
The government and the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market to sell the yen on Aug. 4, but the effects of such efforts were limited and business managers have become more frustrated. Prime Minister Naoto Kan has said his government would decide on whether to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact, but that decision has yet to be made. While the government has failed to implement measures to help boost corporate competitiveness, the yen has strengthened.
"Under these circumstances, production bases could be moved overseas," said a top official of a steel company.
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